Congressional races round 2: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas

Here’s part two of the second round of congressional races.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican, and the filing deadline is June 2, primary August 26

Arizona has 8 representatives – 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans.  Filing deadline is June 4, primary Sept. 2

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Filing deadline is March 10, primary May 20

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1973

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Notes on opponents Benson, the 2006 opponent, raised almost $200K; Young raised 10 times that

Current opponents

1.   Ethan Berkowitz

2. Jake Metcalfe

3. Diane Benson

and possibly

Mark Begrich (mayor of Anchorage)

and, if Young retires, a bunch of Republicans.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, but this year, all bets are off.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO

Representative Rick Renzi (R) Retiring

First elected  2002

2006 margin 52-43 (remainder libertarian)

2004 margin 59-36 (remainder libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, there were well-funded opponents

Current opponents  

1. Howard Shanker

2. Allan Affeldt

3. Ann Kirkpatrick

several other Democrats are considering it, and several Republicans are running

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment A lot will depend on the primaries.  This could be very competitive.

District: AZ-02  

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix

Representative Trent Franks (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither of the recent two opponents had much money, but Franks didn’t need much, either

Current opponents John Thrasher who was the 2006 challenger.

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree

Representative  John Shadegg (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Paine raised less than 100K

Current opponents Bob Lord and an independent

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statisitcs I track

Assessment This is clearly Republican territory, but Shadegg’s retirement throws it open.  No Republican has announced yet.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

First elected  1991

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mitchell ousted Hayworth, despite raising less than Hayworth did (about $2 million to about $3 million)

Current opponents The Wiki lists a lot of potential challengers, declared challengers include Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert, Jim Ogsbury, and Jeff Hatch-Miller

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Like most freshmen, Mitchell is vulnerable, particularly if the Republicans put up someone less obnoxious than Hayworth.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state.  

Representative Jeff Flake

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents

Current opponents Richard Grayson

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico

Representative Raul Grijalva

First elected  2002

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Drake, in 2006, raised over $100K

Current opponents Gene Chewning

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM

Representative Gabrielle Gifford

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents Graf, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, Giffords $2.4 million

Current opponents Timothy Bee

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Although no freshman is completely safe, Giffords won pretty easily in 2006.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS

Representative Marion Berry (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 17) districts.

Assessment A safe Democratic seat in a swing district

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock,

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Parks, in 2004, raised over 500K, almost as much as Snyder, but still lost easily

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK

Representative John Boozman (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Notes on opponents Both races were relatively even (and relatively low) in spending

Current opponents Dave Pritt

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern  AR, including Fayetteville, bordering LA, TX and OK

Representative Mike Ross (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents The 2006 race was Ross vs. Ross; the Democrat raised $1.25 million, the Republican raised almost nothing

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe